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The federal government is officially reducing Medicare payments to physicians next year by 4.5%, but doctors and their lobbyists are ready to blitz Congress over the next two months to convince lawmakers that those cuts should be averted — again.

Medicare signaled these cuts were coming over the summer and finalized them this week in a new regulation. When factored in with other Medicare cuts embedded in law, physicians and policy experts say, the reductions will be closer to 8.5%, and could easily surpass 10% after factoring in how inflation is making it more expensive to buy medical supplies and hire staff.

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Legally, Medicare has to cut doctors’ pay by 4.5% next year because of a web of previous legislation passed by Congress. One 2015 law froze Medicare’s payments to physicians through 2025 and also gave doctors a chance to earn bonus payments if they took on more risk for the cost and quality of care they provided to patients. A separate federal statute, meanwhile, requires any new codes or payments for doctors have to be offset with cuts elsewhere — a concept known as budget neutrality. Those issues, along with other expiring payment increases and complicated formulas, have created the current dilemma.

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