Two weeks after the World Health Organization revised its guidance on COVID-19 vaccination, data analytics company GlobalData says the future of vaccine rollouts is becoming “highly uncertain.”
Over the last few months, manufacturers of the world’s most used COVID vaccines—Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech—have said they expect a major decline in demand for their shots this year. But the WHO guidance and other factors at play may cause the companies to cut their sales expectations further for 2023.
“Combined with recent guidance calling for decreased use of boosters and the U.S. Senate’s decision to end the national emergency declaration early, COVID-19 revenue streams may fade quickly for vaccine developers,” GlobalData pharma analyst Nancy Jaser said in a release.
The WHO’s Strategic Group of Experts on Immunization (SAGE) no longer recommends annual COVID-19 vaccine boosters for healthy adults under 60 years of age after they have received a primary vaccine series and a booster. The experts also no longer recommend vaccinating healthy children of age 17 and younger against the virus.
In January, Pfizer said it expected sales of Comirnaty to reach $13.5 billion in 2023 after generating revenue of $36.8 billion in 2021 and $37.8 billion last year from the shot. During its first-quarter earnings report, set for May 2, Pfizer could adjust its expected sales projection for the vaccine.
Two weeks ago, Pfizer’s partner on the shot, BioNTech, said it expects sales of 5 billion euros ($5.4 billion) from the vaccine in 2023, after selling 17.3 billion euros ($18.7 billion) last year.
Meanwhile, Moderna said in January that it expects to make at least $5 billion from Spikevax in 2023 following a haul of $18.4 billion last year. But six weeks ago, when it reported its fourth-quarter earnings, the company did not zero in on a sales prediction for 2023. The company holds an investor vaccine webcast on Tuesday that could provide more clarity on its expectations.
“Significant drops in global demand and revenue for COVID-19 vaccines are expected in the coming years as the threat of the pandemic winds down and vaccination guidance by health authorities loosens,” Jaser added. “The massive outbreaks caused by the omicron variant led to the currently high levels of immunity observed in all age groups through both vaccination efforts and infections across the globe.”
Another element of uncertainty for Pfizer and Moderna is how their new prices for COVID-19 vaccines will affect demand. Both companies said they could raise the U.S. price of shots up to $130 as the United States transitions from providing the vaccines for free.